A dominant design is a de facto standard of a product. When you think of a bicycle you know it has two wheels, one handlebar, a seat, a chain, and pedals. This design of a bicycle emerged after many different bike concepts emerged. It became a dominant design among all its competitors. The emergence of a dominant design is a critical period in the lifecycle of technology. This event changes the nature of opportunity in the industry.

Dominant design evolution

Initially, cycles came in many different designs. You must have seen those funny bicycles in old movies. The one with one large and one small wheel or those cycles that have just one wheel. They were all contenders for the dominant design in the bicycle industry.

This process of evolution of dominant design takes place in almost every industry

This process of evolution of dominant design takes place in almost every industry. Automobiles, CT scanners, Ebook readers, and fitness trackers you use went through this process.

Where do product designs come from?

The race for dominant design begins as soon as a technological discontinuity takes place.  Consumers do not know what they like or want or need early on. Producers do not know what will work and what won’t work in the market. As a result, a trial and error process starts.

Consider fitness trackers which are quite new in the market. You can witness many designs competing against each other today. I recall using one fitness tracker that was worn as an armband. I also remember using a sleep tracker I had to wear on the forehead. Some are possible to wear on the ankle. Others find their natural home in the pocket. Many can be work on the wrist while some can exist on your smartphone. This competition is an example of the race for the dominant design.

Dominant design and industry shakeout

As one design becomes dominant, the entire industry coalesces around that design. The consumer makes a clear preference for that design. Every supplier who wants to compete has to adopt that design.

Research has shown that the emergence of a dominant design plays a critical role in the technology life cycle. It is closely related to the shakeout stage in the technology lifecycle. Soon after the dominant design emerges, the competition becomes more intense around that design. This leads to some competitors becoming dominant whereas others fall off the radar.

Research has shown that the emergence of a dominant design plays a critical role in the technology life cycle

There were dozens of ebook reader firms a few years back, but most seem to have disappeared now. If you recall, Kindle, Nook, and Sony readers did not look alike early on. But today, the design of an ebook reader is more similar.

Dominant design closes the window of new entry

Until the dominant design emerges in an industry, many new competitors enter the industry. After the emergence of the dominant design, new entry slows down and comes to an end.

Naturally, as soon as the dominant design emerges, it places a few firms at an advantage. These are firms whose design was closest to the dominant design. Others either adapt or exit. Companies begin to deepen their capabilities and create a technological distance from newcomers. This advantage of incumbents over newcomers is the reason why new entry becomes harder as dominant design emerges.

After the emergence of the dominant design, new entry slows down and comes to an end.

Dominant design and the innovator

The innovators who want to stake their claim in an industry need to do so before the dominant design emerges. One can experiment with multiple variations during the initial stage. However, this is not possible after the emergence of the domain design.

Product design agility is a critical success factor for the innovators in early stages.

If you think that a dominant firm can determine the dominant design in an industry, then you will be wrong. Had that been the case, no incumbent would be disrupted. Kodak tried hard to marry digital and chemical technologies. It failed to create a hybrid market for film and CDs. Polaroid sought to add printers on digital cameras but failed to make it a dominant design. Even an innovator such as Apple couldn’t survive in the camera industry. It entered before the dominant design emerged and exited in the shakeout.

Takeaways

There are several takeaways from research on dominant design

• Race of dominant design begins as soon as a technological discontinuity takes place
• The emergence of dominant design closes the window for new entry.
• Agility in design change is critical for firms early on
• The dominant design is less determined by one firm and more by the collective effort of the industry.

If you an innovator in an early stage technology, keep an eye on the emergence of the dominant design. Click to Tweet