Ankush Chopra Ankush Chopra Ankush Chopra Ankush Chopra
  • About
  • Blog
  • Books
    • The Dark Side of Innovation
    • A Sixty-Minute Guide to Disruption
  • Speaking
  • Academy
  • Sign In
Ankush Chopra Ankush Chopra
  • About
  • Blog
  • Books
    • The Dark Side of Innovation
    • A Sixty-Minute Guide to Disruption
  • Speaking
  • Academy
  • Sign In
Sep 16
Technology Life Cycle

TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE

  • Ankush Chopra

Technology life cycle refers to the stages of the life of a technology. This life cycle has shown a consistent pattern across technologies and industries.  Understanding this pattern will help you predict the key events in your industry. It will also help you understand the nature of competition and the key challenges at different stages of technology life cycle.

Stage 1: Technological Discontinuity

The life cycle of a technology starts with the birth of that technology. It often involves a radical departure from existing technology. A radical departure often refers to the new knowledge base in the new technology. It often provides a significant improvement in price performance ratio of the product. A LED light is a radically new technology and provides much longer lasting lighting products.

Stage 2: Old Technology Fights back

At the point of emergence of new technologies, old technologies do not throw in the towel. Instead, they often fight back ferociously. The old technologies witness a significant improvement driven by a need for survival.

As the digital camera emerged, the quality of film roll became better quickly.  Eventually, the old technology loses out. Due to this technological fight, the old technology extends its life to some extent.

Stage 3: Many New Entrant Emerge

As the fight between new and old technology takes place, many new entrants emerge. Before the technological discontinuity, there may have been virtually no new entry for a long time. But after the discontinuity, a significant number of new entrants compete to gain market share.

As the fight between new and old technology takes place, many new entrants emerge

As fitness trackers emerged, there were dozens of new entrants in the market. Similarly, in lighting industry tens of companies began entering the market with the arrival of LED. Until LED, Osram, Philipps and GE dominated the market with no new entry for years.

Stage 4: Shakeout and Consolidation

After a few years of intense competitive activity, most of the new entrants exit the market.  A handful of firms dominates the industry. The shakeout stage of the market is a critical time because the window for new entry rapidly closes after a shakeout.

The shakeout stage of the market is a critical time because the window for new entry rapidly closes after a shakeout. 

Although dozens of digital camera companies entered the camera market, most of them existed. Even Apple offered a digital camera called Quick Take. It launched the camera in 1994 and discontinued it in 1997.

Stage 5: Stability

Once the shakeout takes place, the new technology becomes a dominant technology. After that, the industry experiences relative calm. This technology continues to improve but incrementally. This stability is marked by a lack of new entry and increase in profits of the new incumbent firms.

During the experimentation stage, consumers do not know whether they like the new technology or not. There is a race to build the product that the market will like. However, once the shakeout takes place, the challenge become a different one. After the shakeout, innovation still remains critical. However, the firms shift their focus on becoming more efficient while continuing to innovate incrementally.

[easy-tweet tweet=”Technology life cycle helps you predict events in your industry” hashtags=”#innovation “]

Where do you think the following industries are today?

1. Fitness trackers
2. Mobile phones
3. Self-driving cars

Like this Post?

Please note: I reserve the right to delete comments that are offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read my Comments Policy.

Leave a reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Want to Develop Strategic Thinking Skills?

Get Free Access to our Flagship Strategy Program for the duration of the lockdown. Access The Program Now >>>

About this blog

This blog is aimed at helping you become more strategic in your orientation. Here you will find strategy education, tools, insights, research and ideas  on your path to becoming strategic.

READ A CHAPTER OF THE DARK SIDE OF INNOVATION 

Recent Posts

  • Lessons in Survival from the Ruins of Pompeii March 7, 2021
  • Why Strategy Simulation Is a Powerful Strategic Thinking and Strategy Development Tool? February 16, 2021
  • How To Leverage Your Strategy Reviews? February 1, 2021
  • The Single Biggest Weakness of Corporate Training Programs January 9, 2021
  • Where the Best and the Brightest are Most Vulnerable January 4, 2021
  • The Three Mistakes People Make With Business Case Method November 29, 2020
  • How a little guy will eat your lunch and run away with your business October 25, 2020
  • How to Deal With Ambiguity? August 25, 2020
  • How to Develop a Strategic Mind? April 20, 2020
  • Do you have a data-driven strategy? February 29, 2020

Want to Develop Strategic Thinking Skills?

Get Free Access to our Flagship Strategy Program for the duration of the lockdown. Access The Program Now >>>

RESOURCES

  • Ten Books That Shaped My Thinking
  • How to Deal With Ambiguity?
  • How to Introduce Yourself?
  • How To Build A Data-Driven Strategy?
  • Thin Slicing: Decision Making with Very Little Information
  • Innovation Quick Bites
  • Ten types of innovations
  • Understand Your Mental Models

LINKS

  • Speaking
  • Work With Me
  • Media Appearances
  • Awards and Publications
  • About Me
  • Books
  • Become a Strategist
  • Blog
  • Academy

Recent Blog posts

  • Lessons in Survival from the Ruins of Pompeii
  • Why Strategy Simulation Is a Powerful Strategic Thinking and Strategy Development Tool?
  • How To Leverage Your Strategy Reviews?
  • The Single Biggest Weakness of Corporate Training Programs
  • Where the Best and the Brightest are Most Vulnerable
  • The Three Mistakes People Make With Business Case Method

THE AGE OF DISRUPTION

What is the Age of Disruption?

Three Forces Driving The Age of Disruption

How To Deal With The Age of Disruption?

CONTACT

  • 617-800-9213
  • [email protected]
Copyright © 2016-2021, Ankush Chopra. All Rights Reserved. Terms and Conditions